Most polling indicates a very close race (which is unbelievable, in my opinion), but I have a hard time trusting the polls. I'm no statistician, but the sample sizes seem way too small to truly reflect anything. I think the methodology that many pollsters are still using is arcane. Gallup is especially fishy right now. They have a history of being wrong when they are such an outlier, and thus are very hard to trust at this time. I also don't see how even the best methodology and formula tweaking can account for the fact that there is no proof of the veracity of the respondents. If Obama wins by a lot, then it will be interesting to see how polls are weighted in the next election.
I also feel the media is hyping polls (these arcane things with no certainty of truthfulness in respondents), in order to keep public interest up. A random poll coming from a random polling company will get a headline if they are enough of an outlier. Why? It sells.
After my desire for Obama to win big on a national level, comes my desire for him to win Michigan. Even the polls, those ridiculous things, indicate he has Michigan in hand. But again...I don't trust the polls.
I've got to stay away from the news, because it's not even really news. It's spin - from both sides. The truth will only be known after all the votes are counted.
So, please God, let Obama win, and please, please, please don't let anyone tamper with this election. I'm not sure if I'm paranoid or if it is a real possibility, but I am fearful of interference.
No comments:
Post a Comment